TL;DR
Get workout gear delivered free with Prime
- Fast, free delivery on millions of items
- Prime Video, Amazon Music and more included
- Member-only deals all year
A study published in The Lancet Oncology estimates that infections with 12 pathogens were linked to about 2.3 million new cancer cases worldwide in 2024—roughly 12% of the total. Four pathogens accounted for about 92% of those infection-attributed cases, while HPV and hepatitis B vaccines offer prevention against some of the leading causes.
A global analysis published September 28 in The Lancet Oncology estimates that infections caused about 2.3 million of the 20 million new cancer cases diagnosed in 2024, or roughly one in eight cases. The study examined 12 cancer-linked pathogens and points to prevention, including vaccination against HPV and hepatitis B, as one way to reduce some cancers.
The researchers used estimates from the Global Cancer Observatory’s GLOBOCAN database, which draws on cancer registry data, and combined them with published research on infections among people with specific cancers. The resulting figures are estimates of cases attributable to infection, not a count of individually confirmed causes for every patient.
Four pathogens accounted for about 92% of the infection-attributed cases. Helicobacter pylori, a bacterium that infects the stomach, was linked to an estimated 760,000 cases, mainly gastric cancers. HPV was linked to 750,000 cases, including cervical, penile, throat and mouth cancers. Hepatitis B was linked to 360,000 cases, and Epstein-Barr virus to 260,000, according to the analysis.
The study’s authors examined 12 pathogens, including HPV, hepatitis B and C, HIV and Epstein-Barr virus. The figures describe cancer cases associated with those infections at a population level; they do not mean that every person infected will develop cancer. Most people with Epstein-Barr virus, for example, do not develop a related cancer.
Vaccination Could Prevent Some Cancers
The estimates highlight a preventable component of cancer burden: vaccines can prevent infections linked to several cancers. HPV vaccination can reduce the risk of HPV-related cancers, while hepatitis B vaccination helps prevent infection that can lead to liver cancer. Vaccination does not address every infection-related cancer, and it is only one part of cancer prevention.
Coverage remains uneven. The World Health Organization reported that in 2024, 31% of eligible adolescent girls worldwide had received at least one HPV vaccine dose, below its 90% target. The study also found that low- and middle-income countries accounted for 77% of infection-driven cancer cases; about 81% of HPV-linked cancers occurred in those countries. Those figures point to a substantial gap between available prevention and access to it.
Dr. Prashant Mathur, director of India’s National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research, who was not involved in the study, told Live Science that preventing infections could help reduce cancer cases. He said that, alongside other risk factors, an estimated 50% to 60% of cancers in India are avoidable. That estimate includes multiple factors and should not be read as a figure for infections or vaccines alone.
Products Worth Considering
Fitbit Sense 2 Health and Fitness Smartwatch – Shadow Grey/Graphite
Garmin Venu 3 Fitness Smartwatch, 45 mm, Black
Withings BPM Connect Smart Blood Pressure Monitor
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
Four Pathogens Dominate the Estimates
The study is a global analysis rather than a trial of a vaccine program. It uses cancer registry estimates and published infection data to calculate how many new cases could be attributed to selected pathogens. Its 12% estimate applies to 2024 and the study’s defined set of infection-linked cancers; it is not a forecast of future cases or a measure of how many cancers vaccination alone could prevent.
HPV and hepatitis B have vaccines, while no approved Epstein-Barr virus vaccine is available, according to the source report. Claire Shannon-Lowe, a tumor virologist at the University of Birmingham who was not involved in the study, told Live Science that EBV’s complexity has made vaccine development difficult. Up to 95% of people are infected by adulthood, but most do not develop an EBV-related cancer.
HPV vaccine coverage has been associated with encouraging results in places with high uptake. Dr. Rebecca Perkins, an obstetrician-gynecologist at Tufts University School of Medicine who was not involved in the analysis, told Live Science that studies in Australia, England and Finland reported no HPV-related cancers or deaths among young adults vaccinated by age 13. These observations concern those countries and groups; they do not establish that HPV-related cancers have disappeared everywhere.
““The biggest misconception from families is that the HPV vaccine is not needed or that it can wait.””
— Dr. Rebecca Perkins, Tufts University School of Medicine
Limits of the Global Estimates
The analysis estimates the number of cases attributable to infections using data from registries and earlier studies; it does not directly establish cause in each individual case. The source report does not provide a detailed account of uncertainty ranges or country-by-country estimates for every pathogen, so the precision of the global totals should not be overstated.
It is also unclear from the report how much of the estimated burden could be prevented through vaccination alone. Vaccines cover only some of the pathogens in the analysis, and access, uptake and effectiveness vary. The study’s case estimates do not measure the effect of a specific vaccination campaign.
For EBV, vaccine development remains an open research challenge. The report says there is no approved vaccine, but does not describe a specific candidate’s development stage or timeline. The source material also notes that U.S. hepatitis B vaccination guidance has recently changed, but the precise effect of that change on infection or cancer rates is not yet known.
Coverage and Vaccine Research
The next practical test is whether HPV vaccination coverage can rise, particularly in countries that bear a large share of infection-linked cancers. Perkins said a single-dose HPV regimen could simplify mass vaccination by reducing costs and removing the need to track patients for a return dose; the source report says recent trials have supported that approach. It does not specify which countries or programs will adopt it next.
Hepatitis B vaccination remains another prevention tool, while researchers continue work toward an EBV vaccine. The analysis itself does not announce a new policy or intervention. Readers should watch for updated vaccination coverage data, national guidance and further research measuring how prevention programs affect infection rates and cancer incidence.
Key Questions
What does the study mean by one in eight cancer cases?
It estimates that about 2.3 million of 20 million new cancer cases worldwide in 2024 were attributable to infections with the 12 pathogens examined. It is a population estimate, not a diagnosis of cause in every individual case.
Which infections accounted for most of the estimated cases?
H. pylori, HPV, hepatitis B and Epstein-Barr virus together accounted for about 92% of infection-attributed cases in the analysis. H. pylori and HPV each accounted for roughly 750,000 cases, with the study estimating 760,000 for H. pylori and 750,000 for HPV.
Can vaccines prevent infection-related cancers?
HPV and hepatitis B vaccines can prevent infections linked to some cancers. They do not prevent every infection-related cancer, and vaccination does not eliminate all cancer risk.
Does Epstein-Barr virus infection mean someone will get cancer?
No. EBV is common, with up to 95% of people infected by adulthood, but most infected people do not develop an EBV-related cancer. The source report says there is no approved EBV vaccine.
Source: fediverse
